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  • US-China Tensions Over Chips Risk Hurting Trade Truce, Dialogue

    The simultaneous trade thaw and persistent dispute over access to technology underscore the challenge of resolving the economic conflict between the world’s two largest economies.

    US-China tech tensions are flaring again, with Beijing threatening legal action against anyone enforcing Washington’s restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co.’s chips, casting a shadow over a recent trade truce and efforts to sustain dialogue.

    China’s Commerce Ministry said in a Wednesday statement that entities could breach the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law by assisting in the US curbs, without specifying the punishment. The move escalates the tech dispute even as Chinese officials express their wish to improve relations.

    The US Commerce Department had warned that using the Huawei semiconductors “anywhere in the world” would violate US export controls before later removing the place reference. China has said the Trump administration’s actions on chips undermined recent trade talks in Geneva.

    Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University’s Center for American Studies in Shanghai, said the amendment suggests continued contact between the two sides, at least at the working level.

    The challenge is how both sides can keep the momentum gained from the Geneva talks,” he said. “I hope there can be high-level talks next month. But nothing’s guaranteed at the moment.”

    On the same day of the Chinese warning, Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu told new US ambassador to China, David Perdue, that Beijing hopes the US will work together to promote ties.

    This followed a meeting the day before between People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng and former US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, now chairman of Warburg Pincus, according to a brief statement from the central bank.

    In a separate sitdown between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Asia Society CEO Kyung-wha Kang on Tuesday, China’s top diplomat said China and the US should work toward finding the right way to get along by fostering positive engagement in the Asia-Pacific region first.

    The flurry of exchanges comes after high-level talks in Switzerland earlier this month, where both nations agreed to a 90-day pause in some reciprocal tariffs, although substantial levies remain on Chinese imports.

    These interactions appear to be part of Beijing’s effort to maintain dialogue while conflicts concerning US curbs on semiconductors and China’s control over critical minerals show little sign of resolution. China’s alleged role in fentanyl’s flow into the US also remains a significant point of contention, with American officials pressing China for greater cooperation.

    The simultaneous trade thaw and persistent dispute over access to technology underscore the challenge of resolving the economic conflict between the world’s two largest economies.

    My instinct is that tariffs are on a somewhat independent track from weaponizing supply chains. The logic is different,” said Graham Webster, who leads the DigiChina project at the Stanford University Cyber Policy Center.

    Webster suggested that if the countries reach a more comprehensive trade deal, “the tech restrictions on one or both sides will be on the table.”

  • Trade Setup For May 22: Nifty Faces Resistance Near 25,000

    The NSE Nifty 50, which closed higher on Wednesday, is currently facing resistance near 25,000, according to analysts.

    Technically, the Nifty formed an inside bar candle on the daily chart, suggesting consolidation within the previous candle’s range.The index is currently facing resistance near 25,000, according to Hrishikesh Yedve, technical and derivatives research analyst at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd.

    “A decisive move above 25,000 could lead the index to test 25,200–25,250 levels. On the downside, strong support is placed near 24,430, where the 21-day exponential moving average is positioned,” he said.

    A breakout above 25,000 could push the market up to 25,100–25,150, according to Shrikant Chouhan, head equity research at Kotak Securities.

    “On the flip side, if the market drops below 24,650, sentiment could turn negative. Falling below this level, the correction wave is likely to accelerate. In such a scenario, the market could retest the levels of 24,500–24,450,” Chouhan said.

    The Bank Nifty settled on a marginally positive note at 55,075. Yedve said that technically, the index formed a doji candle on the daily chart, indicating indecision.

    On the downside, strong support is seen near 54,520, while short-term resistance is placed at 55,700 levels. Traders are advised to monitor these levels closely for potential trading opportunities,” he said.

    Market Recap The benchmark equity indices closed higher, breaking a three-session losing streak on Wednesday, amid volatility in the domestic stock markets.

    The NSE Nifty 50 closed 129.55 points, or 0.52% higher at 24,813.5 and the BSE Sensex ended 410 points, or 0.51% up at 81,596. During the day, the Nifty gained 1.06% to 24,946, while the Sensex declined 1.03% to 82,021.

    Currency Market The Indian Rupee closed flat at 85.64 against the US dollar, reflecting a day of cautious trading, influenced by various global and regional factors.

  • IndusInd Bank Crisis: A Timeline From Derivatives Mismatch To Insider Trading Woes

    Over the past two months, IndusInd Bank has found itself in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. What began as a seemingly isolated derivatives trading discrepancy has snowballed into a multi-layered crisis involving leadership resignations, forensic investigations, and a growing trust deficit.

    Here’s a chronological breakdown of key events since the saga

    began: March 10 – IndusInd Bank disclosed discrepancies in its derivatives portfolio, estimating a potential financial impact of 2.35%—approximately Rs 1,900–2,000 crore. The bank said it had initiated a review via an external agency, later revealed to be PwC.

    March 15 – Amid rising depositor anxiety, the Reserve Bank of India stepped in with a public assurance that the issue was internal and under control. The central bank clarified there was no systemic risk and that depositors need not worry.

    March 20 – The bank’s board escalated the matter by commissioning a deeper investigation, this time appointing Grant Thornton to identify the root cause and fix accountability.

    April 22 – The issue widened. IndusInd Bank revealed fresh concerns related to its microfinance accounting. An internal audit, supported by EY, was launched to investigate the new irregularities.

    April 27 – Findings of the Grant Thornton probe were released. The report confirmed a financial impact of Rs 1,960 crore, consistent with earlier estimates. It also identified individuals responsible for the trading mishap, and the board said appropriate disciplinary action had been taken.

    April 28 – Deputy CEO Arun Khurana, who oversaw the treasury division at the time of the derivatives trading missteps, resigned, citing accountability.

    April 29 – MD and CEO Sumant Kathpalia followed suit, stepping down in response to the crisis under his watch, marking a significant leadership reset.

    April 30 – The board appointed two executives to manage operations until a new CEO was found, suggesting an interim arrangement as the bank worked through the fallout.

    May 9 – New concerns emerged. Based on Grant Thornton’s report, the board disclosed it was investigating insider trading allegations. This admission followed a media report.

    May 15 – Two further accounting issues came to light. The bank admitted to Rs 674 crore in incorrectly recognised microfinance income and Rs 595 crore of unsubstantiated balances in ‘other assets’. While these gaps were reportedly corrected in January, their delayed disclosure raised further concerns about transparency.

  • India Aims To Bypass Reciprocal Tariffs Via Mini Deal With US By July

    Indian negotiators are aiming for a complete exemption from the 26% reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US as an interim trade deal is expected to be signed before the tariff pause period expires. Talks for a mini trade deal are underway and aimed for conclusion before July 9 to avoid reciprocal tariffs, according to top government sources aware of the matter. While the US cannot bring tariffs lower than the most-favoured-nation rate without approval from the US Congress, an exemption is still possible.

    alongside chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal. While Goyal has already met US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, another meeting might be on the cards to seal the deal.

    As part of the bilateral trade agreement, the first tranche of which is set to be signed by October this year, it will likely include digital goods and services as well.

    India is also batting for a minimum Import price or import quotas in sensitive sectors like dairy and agriculture as part of the deal, adding that a reduction or removal of the 5–7% basic customs duty for its exports of labour-intensive products like leather is also among the demands put forth.

    India is offering market access to the US agri sector, provided that it only sends nongenetically-modified crops. Regulatory norms in India will not allow the import of GM produce like alfalfa hay. The US is also seeking concessions in certain industrial goods, automobiles, wines, petrochemical products, dairy and other agricultural products, which are currently under discussion.

    The negotiations are a part of the countries’ efforts to expand bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030, as envisioned in the BTA. The terms of reference for the BTA have been finalised, which include around 19 chapters covering issues like tariffs, goods, services, rules of origin, non-tariff barriers and customs facilitation.

  • Oil India Q4 Results: Profit, Revenue Meet Estimates

    Oil India Ltd. reported strong growth in its headline numbers during the fourth quarter of financial year 2025, even as operational metrics underperformed. The standalone net profit of the state-owned oil giant rose 30% to Rs 1,591 crore in the January-March period, compared to Rs 1,222 crore in the previous quarter, according to financial results released on Wednesday. That compares to Bloomberganalysts’ consensus estimate of Rs 1,629 crore. The Maharatna company’s full-year bottom line jumped 10% to Rs 6,114 crore.

    Oil India Q4 FY25 Highlights (Standalone, QoQ) Revenue up 5.3% to Rs 5,519 crore versus Rs 5,240 crore (Bloomberg estimate: Rs 5,371 crore). Ebitda down 7% to Rs 1,984 crore versus Rs 2,133 crore (Bloomberg estimate: Rs 2,266 crore). Margin at 35.9% versus 40.7% (Bloombergestimate: 42.2%). Net profit up 30% to Rs 1,591 crore versus Rs 1,222 crore (Bloomberg estimate: Rs 1,629 crore).

    Revenue from crude oil segment rose 6% to Rs 3,896 crore, while natural gas remained flat at Rs 1,383 crore in the March quarter. Sales from pipeline transportation increased from Rs 146 crore to Rs 164 crore.

    Crude oil production for the fiscal ended March 2025 increased 2.95% to 3.46 million tonnes and natural gas production rose 2.2% to 3.25 billion cubic metres and is the highest ever achieved by the company since its inception, it said in a press release.

    Dividend Oil India’s board recommended a final dividend of Rs 1.5 per share for FY25, subject to approval of shareholders at the ensuing annual general meeting of the company. The dividend would be paid within 30 days from the date of its declaration. The record date will be intimated in due course separately.

    Shares of Oil India closed at 0.8% higher Rs 426.5 on the BSE ahead of the results, compared to a 0.5% gain in the benchmark Sensex. The stock has fallen 4% in the last 12 months and 2% so far this year.

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